![]() Previous CEMN Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr Previous CMC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hrĬanadian Ensemble Member Forecast (# = 01 to 20) Previous AEMN Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr GFS Ensemble Member Forecast (# = 01 to 20) Previous GFS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr Most of these models forecast the weather over the entire globe and are not specifically designed for tropical storm and hurricane forecasting. These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from weather forecast models that solve mathematical equations that describe how wind, temperature, and moisture evolve within the atmosphere. Official Ocean Prediction Center Forecast Official Weather Prediction Center Forecast Official NHC/CPHC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr While derived from official sources of information, they should NOT be considered to be official. These five identifiers represent forecasts issued by NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Weather Prediction Center, and Ocean Prediction Center. ![]() Please note that all consensus, statistical, and statistical-dynamical guidance is classified as "early" guidance and is often derived from "early" model output. In the lists above, "early" models are those whose designators end in an I (e.g., AVNI, CMCI, etc.). As you might expect, "late" model forecasts thus form the basis for the subsequent "early" model forecasts. The actual 0000 UTC model forecast, arriving after the 0300 UTC forecast must be made, is known as a "late" model forecast. This results in what is known as an interpolated, or "early", model that is available at 0000 UTC for forecasters to use when preparing the 0300 UTC forecast. To alleviate this, model forecasts from the previous cycle, or 1800 UTC in our current example, are shifted forward in time by 6 hr. Ideally, model forecasts from the 0000 UTC cycle would be available to help make the 0300 UTC forecast (for example) however, as modern numerical weather prediction models typically require several hours to complete a given forecast cycle, this is often not possible. These times correspond to 11 pm, 5 am, 11 am, and 5 pm EDT, respectively. However, National Hurricane Center official forecasts are issued at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. These times correspond to 8 pm, 2 am, 8 am, and 2 pm EDT, respectively. Numerical models are typically run four times per day: 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. ![]() The National Hurricane Center and other official tropical cyclone forecast centers make use of two different forms of dynamical model guidance during the forecast process: "early" and "late" models. Click here for the partial source document for this list, or click here for a listing of deprecated identifers (e.g., to help interpret the historical forecasts available from this page). The National Hurricane Center has an excellent website with more details on the formulations for many of the models listed below. ![]() A tropical storm watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee in Florida.Ever wonder which forecast model each of those three or four letter identifiers refers to on the forecast model track and intensity plots? Or what the difference is between various model types? This list, current as of the 2020 hurricane season, has the answers.A tropical storm warning is in effect for areas north of Deerfield Beach, Florida, to Jupiter Inlet, Florida, and north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.A hurricane watch is in effect for areas north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina north of South Santee River, South Crolina, to Duck, North Carolina and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.A hurricane warning is in effect for areas north of Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to South Santee River, South Carolina.A hurricane warning is in effect for Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.A hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Bahama Island and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas.A storm surge watch is in effect for north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.A storm surge warning is in effect for Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina.
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